Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold FC Internazionale Milano (44%) · FC Internazionale Milano at 84¢ · $408 held · ended Oct 31

AC Milan16¢FC Internazionale Milano84¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Internazionale Milano

Consensus Traders

FC Internazionale Milano 44%

Total Value

$408.43

Combined PnL

$6.54

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 83.8¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Internazionale Milano at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Internazionale Milano

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

AC Milan16%

FC Internazionale Milano84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Internazionale Milano4 traders

Total Value$367.64

Total Shares460

Combined PnL+$7.12

AC Milan5 traders

Total Value$40.79

Total Shares296

Combined PnL-$0.58

FC Internazionale Milano — 44%AC Milan — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 77.1¢	$192.75	$193.25	+$0.5	55% 2937-2368 (5305)
FO foooool<$100	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 81.8¢	$88.19	$88.67	+$0.48	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
HRTrading<$100	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 76¢	$70.49	$77.03	+$6.54	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	AC Milanavg 18.1¢	$30.15	$28.61	-$1.54	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
GH ghorrock<$100	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 96.6¢	$9.09	$8.7	-$0.4	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	AC Milanavg 7.4¢	$7.94	$8.15	+$0.21	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	AC Milanavg 14.5¢	$1.57	$2.66	+$1.08	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	AC Milanavg 16.3¢	$1.06	$1.09	+$0.03	53% 2197-1937 (4134)
poshposhCTR<$100	AC Milanavg 13¢	$0.65	$0.28	-$0.38	59% 10257-7240 (17497)

Anon455

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$192.75

Value

$193.25

PnL

+$0.5

Record

55%

2937-2368 (5305)

foooool<$100

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$88.19

Value

$88.67

PnL

+$0.48

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

HRTrading<$100

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$70.49

Value

$77.03

PnL

+$6.54

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$30.15

Value

$28.61

PnL

-$1.54

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

ghorrock<$100

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$9.09

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$0.4

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$7.94

Value

$8.15

PnL

+$0.21

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$1.57

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$1.08

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

2197-1937 (4134)

poshposhCTR<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.38

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

Research grade

NeutralFC Internazionale Milano at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FC Internazionale Milano

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Internazionale Milano wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.4%

83.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.