Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold AC Milan (55%) · AC Milan at 64¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31

AC Milan64¢FC Internazionale Milano36¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

AC Milan

Consensus Traders

AC Milan 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$704.88

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 64¢

+38% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAC Milan at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

AC Milan

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

AC Milan64%

FC Internazionale Milano36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

AC Milan6 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares10,933

Combined PnL+$709.36

FC Internazionale Milano5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,586

Combined PnL-$4.48

AC Milan — 55%FC Internazionale Milano — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	AC Milanavg 46.5¢	$3.9K	$4.2K	+$339.55	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
GO GoalLineGhost	AC Milanavg 46.3¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$350.59	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
TO torta.techCTR	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 50¢	$533	$511.68	-$21.32	63% 8137-4876 (13013)
LI LilybaeumCTR	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 52.5¢	$318.74	$494.23	+$175.49	61% 13722-8594 (22316)
FO fooooolARB<$100	AC Milanavg 46¢	$182.3	$190.68	+$8.38	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
└ AC Milan leg	AC Milanavg 46¢	$100	$121.74	+$21.74
└ FC Internazionale Milano leg	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 52.5¢	$82.3	$68.94	-$13.36
UP UpTheBluesCTR	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 72.8¢	$322.58	$177.3	-$145.28	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
AN Anon455CTR	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 53¢	$132.5	$140	+$7.5	55% 2937-2368 (5305)
RN1CTR	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 53.9¢	$119.39	$98.52	-$20.87	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
HRTrading<$100	AC Milanavg 49¢	$25.49	$31.73	+$6.24	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	AC Milanavg 38.3¢	$8.55	$14.3	+$5.75	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
GH ghorrock<$100	AC Milanavg 32.5¢	$8.56	$8.9	+$3.93	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
CA Cannae<$100	AC Milanavg 9¢	$2.97	$6.26	+$3.3	53% 15980-14158 (30138)

omnibus-076daa

AC Milan

Invested

$3,897.36

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$339.55

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

GoalLineGhost

AC Milan

Invested

$1,296.05

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$350.59

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

torta.techCTR

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$533

Value

$511.68

PnL

-$21.32

Record

63%

8137-4876 (13013)

LilybaeumCTR

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$318.74

Value

$494.23

PnL

+$175.49

Record

61%

13722-8594 (22316)

fooooolARB<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$182.3

Value

$190.68

PnL

+$8.38

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

Both legs:

AC Milan$10046¢+$21.74

FC Internazionale Milano$82.352.5¢-$13.36

UpTheBluesCTR

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$322.58

Value

$177.3

PnL

-$145.28

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

Anon455CTR

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$132.5

Value

$140

PnL

+$7.5

Record

55%

2937-2368 (5305)

RN1CTR

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$119.39

Value

$98.52

PnL

-$20.87

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

HRTrading<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$25.49

Value

$31.73

PnL

+$6.24

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

topdogbigboi<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$8.55

Value

$14.3

PnL

+$5.75

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

ghorrock<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$8.56

Value

$8.9

PnL

+$3.93

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

Cannae<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$2.97

Value

$6.26

PnL

+$3.3

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

Research grade

NeutralAC Milan at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

AC Milan

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that AC Milan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.