Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold AC Milan (60%) · AC Milan at 100¢ · $506 held · ended Oct 31

FC Internazionale Milano<1¢AC Milan>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

AC Milan

Consensus Traders

AC Milan 60%

Total Value

$505.64

Combined PnL

-$29.4

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 99.5¢

+32% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAC Milan at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

AC Milan

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Internazionale Milano1%

AC Milan100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

AC Milan3 traders

Total Value$499.19

Total Shares649

Combined PnL+$2.7

FC Internazionale Milano2 traders

Total Value$6.44

Total Shares399

Combined PnL-$32.1

AC Milan — 60%FC Internazionale Milano — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA Cannae	AC Milanavg 74.9¢	$445.76	$446.28	+$0.52	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
0xheavy888<$100	AC Milanavg 75¢	$22.48	$28.92	+$0.45	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
HRTrading<$100	AC Milanavg 92.3¢	$22.25	$23.99	+$1.74	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
poshposhCTR<$100	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 13¢	$5.38	$4.66	-$0.72	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	FC Internazionale Milanoavg 9.3¢	$33.16	$1.79	-$31.37	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

Cannae

AC Milan

Invested

$445.76

Value

$446.28

PnL

+$0.52

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

0xheavy888<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$22.48

Value

$28.92

PnL

+$0.45

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

HRTrading<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$22.25

Value

$23.99

PnL

+$1.74

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

poshposhCTR<$100

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$5.38

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$0.72

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

FC Internazionale Milano

Invested

$33.16

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$31.37

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

NeutralAC Milan at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

AC Milan

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that AC Milan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.