Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-31?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 74¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 31

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$46.03

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 73.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares8,653

Combined PnL+$44.09

Yes3 traders

Total Value$725.56

Total Shares2,738

Combined PnL+$1.94

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 73.1¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	+$15	58% 41483-30105 (71588)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 73¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$14.37	53% 5576-4935 (10511)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 73¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$8.59	50% 24854-24560 (49414)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 73¢	$479.18	$482.99	+$3.81	—
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 26¢	$375.17	$382.38	+$7.21	65% 1700-920 (2620)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$333.45	$327.28	-$6.17	58% 56-40 (96)
CA Cannae	Noavg 73¢	$238.29	$239.93	+$1.63	53% 15879-14069 (29948)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 73¢	$100.01	$100.7	+$0.68	46% 7925-9338 (17263)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$15	$15.9	+$0.9	38% 377-619 (996)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,451.19

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$15

Record

58%

41483-30105 (71588)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$2,097.63

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$14.37

Record

53%

5576-4935 (10511)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,254.51

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$8.59

Record

50%

24854-24560 (49414)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$479.18

Value

$482.99

PnL

+$3.81

Record

—

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$375.17

Value

$382.38

PnL

+$7.21

Record

65%

1700-920 (2620)

PLACEYOURBETS123CTR

Yes

Invested

$333.45

Value

$327.28

PnL

-$6.17

Record

58%

56-40 (96)

Cannae

Invested

$238.29

Value

$239.93

PnL

+$1.63

Record

53%

15879-14069 (29948)

38791873984189

Invested

$100.01

Value

$100.7

PnL

+$0.68

Record

46%

7925-9338 (17263)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$0.9

Record

38%

377-619 (996)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.