Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 49¢ · $254 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$254.49
-$15.45
51.3¢ → 48.5¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $97.22 | $96.23 | -$0.99 | 38% 377-619 (996) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $51.06 | $50.15 | -$0.91 | 45% 669-828 (1497) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 47.2¢ | $90.44 | $42.55 | +$1.55 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
LA lavendergoomsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 64.8¢ | $57.42 | $42.52 | -$15.34 | 52% 2615-2367 (4982) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $23.04 | $23.04 | +$0.24 | 52% 3998-3640 (7638) |
Invested
$97.22
Value
$96.23
PnL
-$0.99
Record
38%
377-619 (996)
Invested
$51.06
Value
$50.15
PnL
-$0.91
Record
45%
669-828 (1497)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$90.44
Value
$42.55
PnL
+$1.55
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$57.42
Value
$42.52
PnL
-$15.34
Record
52%
2615-2367 (4982)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$23.04
Value
$23.04
PnL
+$0.24
Record
52%
3998-3640 (7638)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.