Exact Score: AC Milan 3 - 3 FC Internazionale Milano?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 93¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$3.4K
-$153.33
92.1¢ → 92.9¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 91.6¢ | $3.1K | $2.9K | -$151.52 | 50% 33488-33047 (66535) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 98¢ | $357.81 | $318.83 | -$3.94 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
FO foooool | Noavg 87.2¢ | $100 | $102.12 | +$2.12 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 87.8¢ | $20.45 | $20.97 | +$0.52 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $2.39 | $9.31 | -$0.33 | 50% 7036-7035 (14071) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $4.53 | $4.35 | -$0.18 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
Invested
$3,073.34
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$151.52
Record
50%
33488-33047 (66535)
VeryLucky888Invested
$357.81
Value
$318.83
PnL
-$3.94
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$100
Value
$102.12
PnL
+$2.12
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
Invested
$20.45
Value
$20.97
PnL
+$0.52
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$2.39
Value
$9.31
PnL
-$0.33
Record
50%
7036-7035 (14071)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.53
Value
$4.35
PnL
-$0.18
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.