Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 2 FC Internazionale Milano?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$4.9K
$1.93
90¢ → 100¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SB sbimbg | Noavg 90¢ | $4.5K | $4.5K | +$0 | 70% 3154-1363 (4517) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 90¢ | $375.93 | $375.93 | +$0 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $53.47 | $55.32 | +$1.84 | 59% 10257-7240 (17497) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $8.01 | $8.02 | +$0 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $7.12 | $7.2 | +$0.08 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
Invested
$4,500
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$0
Record
70%
3154-1363 (4517)
VeryLucky888Invested
$375.93
Value
$375.93
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
poshposh<$100Invested
$53.47
Value
$55.32
PnL
+$1.84
Record
59%
10257-7240 (17497)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.01
Value
$8.02
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$7.12
Value
$7.2
PnL
+$0.08
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.