Will AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 74¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Yes27¢No73¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$16.34

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 73.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,026

Combined PnL+$11.79

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares3,833

Combined PnL+$4.55

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 73¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$0.26	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
AN Anon455	Noavg 73¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$17.13	55% 2937-2368 (5305)
0X 0xedrtgfBdecfrhyeerdCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$500	$500	+$0	34% 77-148 (225)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72.7¢	$408.15	$409.72	+$1.56	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 26.6¢	$373.43	$371.93	-$1.5	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 73¢	$321.75	$323.95	+$2.2	53% 2197-1937 (4134)
PA pauleta23	Noavg 77¢	$200	$190.93	-$9.07	67% 23351-11752 (35103)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 73.6¢	$109.03	$110.05	+$1.02	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.6¢	$83.53	$84.55	+$1.02
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.5¢	$25.5	$25.5	+$0
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.6¢	$54.48	$55.28	+$0.8	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$34.5	$39.75	+$5.25	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
RN1<$100	Noavg 73¢	$28.03	$28.22	+$0.19	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$22.68	$22.68	+$0	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$18.9	$18.9	+$0	39% 426-672 (1098)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$18.63	$18.63	+$0	50% 7036-7035 (14071)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 73¢	$5.11	$5.15	+$0.03	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$1,725.23

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$0.26

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

Anon455

Invested

$1,162.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$17.13

Record

55%

2937-2368 (5305)

0xedrtgfBdecfrhyeerdCTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

77-148 (225)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$408.15

Value

$409.72

PnL

+$1.56

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$373.43

Value

$371.93

PnL

-$1.5

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$321.75

Value

$323.95

PnL

+$2.2

Record

53%

2197-1937 (4134)

pauleta23

Invested

$200

Value

$190.93

PnL

-$9.07

Record

67%

23351-11752 (35103)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$109.03

Value

$110.05

PnL

+$1.02

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

Both legs:

Invested

$54.48

Value

$55.28

PnL

+$0.8

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.5

Value

$39.75

PnL

+$5.25

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

RN1<$100

Invested

$28.03

Value

$28.22

PnL

+$0.19

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.68

Value

$22.68

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.9

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

426-672 (1098)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.63

Value

$18.63

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.