AC Milan vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 5.5

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 100¢ · $27K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.8K

Combined PnL

$3.5K

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 100¢

+54% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares21,581

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Over10 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares15,739

Combined PnL+$34.7

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 48.7¢	$8.9K	$11.9K	+$3.1K	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
DA dartanyan150	Overavg 60¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$5	58% 239-175 (414)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 45.8¢	$3.7K	$2.9K	-$805.81	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.8¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$441.78
└ Under leg	Underavg 94.7¢	$1.1K	$689.03	-$364.04
JhonAlexanderHinestroza	Overavg 96.6¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$4.42	57% 1104-839 (1943)
RN1CTR	Underavg 46.9¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$393.49	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 59.4¢	$826.31	$663.73	-$162.58	50% 12125-12330 (24455)
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 96.7¢	$588.21	$520.83	-$67.38	49% 18616-19046 (37662)
FO foooool	Overavg 23.3¢	$160.47	$258.55	+$98.08	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731	Overavg 4¢	$15.73	$196.63	+$180.9	32% 715-1540 (2255)
PA pauleta23	Overavg 98¢	$124.95	$122.95	-$2	67% 23111-11517 (34628)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 54.3¢	$39.89	$23.79	-$16.1	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 4.4¢	$17.32	$19.58	+$2.27	47% 4449-4924 (9373)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$19.12	$17.21	-$1.91	60% 3248-2179 (5427)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 46¢	$6.77	$5.61	-$1.17	55% 8108-6551 (14659)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 4¢	$0.38	$4.75	+$4.37	57% 13150-10021 (23171)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$8,854.41

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

dartanyan150

Over

Invested

$6,000

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$5

Record

58%

239-175 (414)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,656.16

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$805.81

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

Both legs:

Over$2,603.0945.8¢-$441.78

Under$1,053.0794.7¢-$364.04

JhonAlexanderHinestroza

Over

Invested

$2,526.9

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$4.42

Record

57%

1104-839 (1943)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,225.85

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$393.49

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$826.31

Value

$663.73

PnL

-$162.58

Record

50%

12125-12330 (24455)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$588.21

Value

$520.83

PnL

-$67.38

Record

49%

18616-19046 (37662)

foooool

Over

Invested

$160.47

Value

$258.55

PnL

+$98.08

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731

Over

Invested

$15.73

Value

$196.63

PnL

+$180.9

Record

32%

715-1540 (2255)

pauleta23

Over

Invested

$124.95

Value

$122.95

PnL

-$2

Record

67%

23111-11517 (34628)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$39.89

Value

$23.79

PnL

-$16.1

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.32

Value

$19.58

PnL

+$2.27

Record

47%

4449-4924 (9373)

shiifooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.12

Value

$17.21

PnL

-$1.91

Record

60%

3248-2179 (5427)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$6.77

Value

$5.61

PnL

-$1.17

Record

55%

8108-6551 (14659)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$0.38

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$4.37

Record

57%

13150-10021 (23171)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.