AC Milan vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 0.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$5.3K
-$592.61
92.4¢ → 100¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 92¢ | $4.8K | $4.9K | -$279.78 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
VA Vampiro1 | Overavg 98¢ | $200 | $203.98 | +$3.98 | 77% 3115-956 (4071) |
RO Rocko33 | Overavg 98¢ | $129 | $131.56 | +$2.57 | 64% 997-567 (1564) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 92.4¢ | $78.57 | $78.2 | +$0.06 | 58% 28125-20732 (48857) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 8¢ | $321.44 | $2.01 | -$319.43 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
Invested
$4,796.3
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$279.78
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
Invested
$200
Value
$203.98
PnL
+$3.98
Record
77%
3115-956 (4071)
Invested
$129
Value
$131.56
PnL
+$2.57
Record
64%
997-567 (1564)
Invested
$78.57
Value
$78.2
PnL
+$0.06
Record
58%
28125-20732 (48857)
Invested
$321.44
Value
$2.01
PnL
-$319.43
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.