Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

AC Milan vs. Bologna FC 1909: Bologna FC 1909 O/U 1.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $224 held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$223.64

Combined PnL

$108.12

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$192.46

Total Shares385

Combined PnL+$106.26

Under4 traders

Total Value$31.18

Total Shares75

Combined PnL+$1.86

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 22.4¢	$86.2	$192.46	+$106.26	49% 18616-19046 (37662)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$14.7	$19.35	+$4.65	47% 4449-4924 (9373)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 78.3¢	$14.22	$6.21	-$3.27	57% 13150-10021 (23171)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$4.9	$4.9	+$0	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$0.24	$0.72	+$0.48	60% 9388-6379 (15767)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$86.2

Value

$192.46

PnL

+$106.26

Record

49%

18616-19046 (37662)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.7

Value

$19.35

PnL

+$4.65

Record

47%

4449-4924 (9373)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.22

Value

$6.21

PnL

-$3.27

Record

57%

13150-10021 (23171)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.72

PnL

+$0.48

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.