Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bologna FC 1909 (44%) · Bologna FC 1909 at 56¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 28

AC Milan44¢Bologna FC 190956¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bologna FC 1909

Consensus Traders

Bologna FC 1909 44%

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

-$141.1

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 56.5¢

-24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBologna FC 1909 at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bologna FC 1909

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

AC Milan44%

Bologna FC 190956%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bologna FC 19094 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares17,241

Combined PnL+$646.01

AC Milan5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares14,454

Combined PnL-$787.11

Bologna FC 1909 — 44%AC Milan — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Bologna FC 1909avg 74.2¢	$12.6K	$13.2K	+$636.74	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	AC Milanavg 27.4¢	$3.8K	$3.1K	-$751.84	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
FO foooool	Bologna FC 1909avg 73¢	$145.67	$154.65	+$8.98	50% 10533-10389 (20922)
CA Cannae<$100	Bologna FC 1909avg 68.7¢	$59.17	$59.46	+$0.29	53% 15742-13910 (29652)
RN1CTR<$100	AC Milanavg 23¢	$51.22	$49.61	-$1.61	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	AC Milanavg 29.7¢	$74.24	$23.65	-$23.53	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	AC Milanavg 30.2¢	$12.64	$12.96	+$0.32	53% 2082-1842 (3924)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	AC Milanavg 30.4¢	$19.35	$8.91	-$10.44	57% 13143-10017 (23160)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Bologna FC 1909avg 78¢	$7.09	$7.09	-$0	50% 32772-32330 (65102)

UpTheBlues

Bologna FC 1909

Invested

$12,586.01

Value

$13.2K

PnL

+$636.74

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

GoalLineGhostCTR

AC Milan

Invested

$3,837.24

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$751.84

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

foooool

Bologna FC 1909

Invested

$145.67

Value

$154.65

PnL

+$8.98

Record

50%

10533-10389 (20922)

Cannae<$100

Bologna FC 1909

Invested

$59.17

Value

$59.46

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

15742-13910 (29652)

RN1CTR<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$51.22

Value

$49.61

PnL

-$1.61

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$74.24

Value

$23.65

PnL

-$23.53

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$12.64

Value

$12.96

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

ghorrockCTR<$100

AC Milan

Invested

$19.35

Value

$8.91

PnL

-$10.44

Record

57%

13143-10017 (23160)

SnakeBall<$100

Bologna FC 1909

Invested

$7.09

Value

$7.09

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

32772-32330 (65102)

Research grade

NeutralBologna FC 1909 at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bologna FC 1909

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bologna FC 1909 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.