Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-28?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 60¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 28

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

-$80.85

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 59.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares18,621

Combined PnL-$93.84

No4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,692

Combined PnL+$12.99

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 60¢	$10.9K	$10.8K	-$90.57	65% 1647-894 (2541)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Noavg 40¢	$500	$506.25	+$6.25	51% 3886-3800 (7686)
KL kleomarcus	Yesavg 60¢	$300	$297.5	-$2.5	63% 1646-987 (2633)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 40¢	$240.82	$240.82	+$0	54% 2551-2184 (4735)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 39¢	$198.07	$203.15	+$5.08	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Noavg 40¢	$132.81	$134.47	+$1.66	49% 3887-4076 (7963)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$4.82	$4.02	-$0.77	93% 2975-231 (3206)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$10,868.48

Value

$10.8K

PnL

-$90.57

Record

65%

1647-894 (2541)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$506.25

PnL

+$6.25

Record

51%

3886-3800 (7686)

kleomarcus

Yes

Invested

$300

Value

$297.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

63%

1646-987 (2633)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$240.82

Value

$240.82

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2551-2184 (4735)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$198.07

Value

$203.15

PnL

+$5.08

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

NotradecopyCTR

Invested

$132.81

Value

$134.47

PnL

+$1.66

Record

49%

3887-4076 (7963)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.82

Value

$4.02

PnL

-$0.77

Record

93%

2975-231 (3206)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.