AC Milan vs. Bologna FC 1909: 1st Half O/U 2.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 100¢

+34% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,209

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,159

Combined PnL+$111.54

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP spendingmoney	Overavg 83.9¢	$3.0K	$1.7K	$-1.3K	55% 800-643 (1443)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 51.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$14.59	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
RN1	Overavg 48¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$42.11	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
JhonAlexanderHinestroza	Overavg 84¢	$678.98	$387.99	-$290.99	57% 1104-839 (1943)
eskilloCTR	Underavg 16¢	$91	$295.75	-$90.72	42% 577-803 (1380)
PA pauleta23CTR	Underavg 16.4¢	$78.45	$249.11	+$170.66	67% 23111-11517 (34628)
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$139.75	$67.15	-$72.6	99% 12680-184 (12864)
0X 0xbf2342fds234423dCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$3.15	$20.49	+$17.34	51% 636-616 (1252)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$18.02	$17.68	-$0.34	59% 52-36 (88)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 65¢	$5.76	$4.25	-$1.51	60% 9388-6379 (15767)

spendingmoney

Over

Invested

$2,995.93

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

55%

800-643 (1443)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,565

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$14.59

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,596.21

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$42.11

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

JhonAlexanderHinestroza

Over

Invested

$678.98

Value

$387.99

PnL

-$290.99

Record

57%

1104-839 (1943)

eskilloCTR

Under

Invested

$91

Value

$295.75

PnL

-$90.72

Record

42%

577-803 (1380)

pauleta23CTR

Under

Invested

$78.45

Value

$249.11

PnL

+$170.66

Record

67%

23111-11517 (34628)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$139.75

Value

$67.15

PnL

-$72.6

Record

99%

12680-184 (12864)

0xbf2342fds234423dCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.15

Value

$20.49

PnL

+$17.34

Record

51%

636-616 (1252)

PLACEYOURBETS123CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.02

Value

$17.68

PnL

-$0.34

Record

59%

52-36 (88)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$5.76

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$1.51

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.