Exact Score: AC Milan 2 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 84¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.6K
-$34.63
88.5¢ → 83.5¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 88.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$39 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
FO forecastication4 | Noavg 88¢ | $282.35 | $287.16 | +$4.81 | 49% 1127-1157 (2284) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.1¢ | $31.97 | $32.64 | +$0.67 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $22.25 | $22.37 | +$0.12 | 58% 28123-20732 (48855) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $7.44 | $6.2 | -$1.24 | 60% 9374-6357 (15731) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,328.98
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$39
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$282.35
Value
$287.16
PnL
+$4.81
Record
49%
1127-1157 (2284)
Invested
$31.97
Value
$32.64
PnL
+$0.67
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
Invested
$22.25
Value
$22.37
PnL
+$0.12
Record
58%
28123-20732 (48855)
poshposh<$100Invested
$7.44
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$1.24
Record
60%
9374-6357 (15731)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.