Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 1 Bologna FC 1909?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.3K
$-1.1K
98.7¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $2.0K | $1.0K | -$985.33 | 99% 12680-184 (12864) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $29.08 | $144.27 | +$115.19 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 87¢ | $195.71 | $97.69 | -$68.62 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $60 | $31.88 | -$28.13 | 76% 3924-1248 (5172) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.05 | $4.29 | +$3.24 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $126.87 | $0.57 | -$126.3 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
Invested
$2,012.98
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$985.33
Record
99%
12680-184 (12864)
RN1CTRInvested
$29.08
Value
$144.27
PnL
+$115.19
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
VeryLucky888Invested
$195.71
Value
$97.69
PnL
-$68.62
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
Invested
$60
Value
$31.88
PnL
-$28.13
Record
76%
3924-1248 (5172)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$4.29
PnL
+$3.24
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
Invested
$126.87
Value
$0.57
PnL
-$126.3
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.