Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
AC Milan vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 8.5 Total Corners
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 50¢ · $764 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$763.93
$130.45
52.3¢ → 50¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 51.7¢ | $239.13 | $354.74 | +$115.61 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186 | Underavg 53¢ | $250 | $250 | +$0 | 52% 135-123 (258) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 53.1¢ | $61.37 | $78.54 | +$17.17 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $51.78 | $48.85 | -$2.93 | 55% 1688-1391 (3079) |
FR fraagen<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $31.2 | $31.8 | +$0.6 | 48% 52-57 (109) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$239.13
Value
$354.74
PnL
+$115.61
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
Invested
$250
Value
$250
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
135-123 (258)
Invested
$61.37
Value
$78.54
PnL
+$17.17
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$51.78
Value
$48.85
PnL
-$2.93
Record
55%
1688-1391 (3079)
Invested
$31.2
Value
$31.8
PnL
+$0.6
Record
48%
52-57 (109)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.