Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
AC Milan vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to Score
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 0.1¢ · $279 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
No
10
No 50%
$278.67
-$132.3
41.1¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888CTR | Noavg 50¢ | $123.91 | $127.62 | +$3.72 | 56% 6915-5529 (12444) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $49.98 | $49.47 | -$0.51 | 53% 2082-1842 (3924) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 16.4¢ | $33.36 | $33.63 | +$0.27 | 54% 55721-47803 (103524) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $30.34 | $30.75 | +$0.84 | 53% 15742-13910 (29652) |
US User7429<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $17.67 | $14.73 | -$2.95 | 55% 8103-6544 (14647) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $24.96 | $7.68 | -$17.28 | 50% 10533-10389 (20922) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $7.08 | $6.79 | -$0.21 | 58% 28123-20732 (48855) |
RE retarb<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $5.13 | $4.27 | -$0.86 | 49% 4188-4446 (8634) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.7¢ | $11.12 | $3.62 | -$7.5 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 51.2¢ | $107.93 | $0.11 | -$107.82 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$123.91
Value
$127.62
PnL
+$3.72
Record
56%
6915-5529 (12444)
Invested
$49.98
Value
$49.47
PnL
-$0.51
Record
53%
2082-1842 (3924)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$33.36
Value
$33.63
PnL
+$0.27
Record
54%
55721-47803 (103524)
Invested
$30.34
Value
$30.75
PnL
+$0.84
Record
53%
15742-13910 (29652)
Invested
$17.67
Value
$14.73
PnL
-$2.95
Record
55%
8103-6544 (14647)
Invested
$24.96
Value
$7.68
PnL
-$17.28
Record
50%
10533-10389 (20922)
Invested
$7.08
Value
$6.79
PnL
-$0.21
Record
58%
28123-20732 (48855)
Invested
$5.13
Value
$4.27
PnL
-$0.86
Record
49%
4188-4446 (8634)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$11.12
Value
$3.62
PnL
-$7.5
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
Invested
$107.93
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$107.82
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.