Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-10-28?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 83¢ · $464 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$464.41
-$25.81
83¢ → 82.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 83¢ | $267.26 | $249.55 | -$17.71 | 50% 32578-32115 (64693) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $80.56 | $75.22 | -$5.34 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $56.49 | $56.15 | -$0.34 | 65% 1647-894 (2541) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $54.37 | $54.04 | -$0.33 | 53% 2036-1804 (3840) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $31.54 | $29.45 | -$2.09 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
Invested
$267.26
Value
$249.55
PnL
-$17.71
Record
50%
32578-32115 (64693)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$80.56
Value
$75.22
PnL
-$5.34
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
Invested
$56.49
Value
$56.15
PnL
-$0.34
Record
65%
1647-894 (2541)
Invested
$54.37
Value
$54.04
PnL
-$0.33
Record
53%
2036-1804 (3840)
Invested
$31.54
Value
$29.45
PnL
-$2.09
Record
58%
27868-20501 (48369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.