US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 5.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 95¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 1

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

-$405.97

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 94.7¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares6,994

Combined PnL-$405.89

Over2 traders

Total Value$9.68

Total Shares133

Combined PnL-$0.09

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 83.1¢	$3.5K	$2.9K	-$696.84	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 82.5¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$274.78	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 92.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.34	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 95¢	$347.89	$339.38	-$8.5	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 82.6¢	$79.59	$97.23	+$17.64	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
└ Under leg	Underavg 82.6¢	$49.56	$55.62	+$6.06
└ Over leg	Overavg 5.3¢	$30.03	$41.61	+$11.58
RO Rocky31<$100	Underavg 76.9¢	$64.79	$78.05	+$13.27	74% 1684-595 (2279)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 97¢	$33.95	$33.21	+$0.07	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$8.93	$9.31	+$0.38	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 16.7¢	$0.84	$0.37	-$0.47	48% 8991-9637 (18628)

RN1

Under

Invested

$3,548.5

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$696.84

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$2,222.52

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$274.78

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,157.47

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.34

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$347.89

Value

$339.38

PnL

-$8.5

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$79.59

Value

$97.23

PnL

+$17.64

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

Both legs:

Under$49.5682.6¢+$6.06

Over$30.035.3¢+$11.58

Rocky31<$100

Under

Invested

$64.79

Value

$78.05

PnL

+$13.27

Record

74%

1684-595 (2279)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$33.95

Value

$33.21

PnL

+$0.07

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.93

Value

$9.31

PnL

+$0.38

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$0.47

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.9%

94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.