Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 43¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 1

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$302.55

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 43¢

-27% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,895

Combined PnL+$150.36

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,239

Combined PnL-$452.91

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 59.9¢	$3.4K	$3.0K	-$864.6	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.9¢	$2.5K	$1.6K	-$944.12
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.1¢	$905.93	$1.4K	+$79.52
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731	Overavg 39¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$130.7	32% 742-1577 (2319)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Underavg 59¢	$944	$920	-$24	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 59¢	$855.9	$834.53	-$21.36	72% 6831-2625 (9456)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 60.3¢	$924.5	$439.74	-$392.03	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 59¢	$190.17	$185.33	-$4.83	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 59¢	$147.53	$146.06	-$1.47	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 61¢	$122.26	$119.95	-$4.77	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61¢	$90.28	$85.1	-$5.18
└ Over leg	Overavg 39¢	$31.98	$34.85	+$0.41
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 61¢	$122	$115	-$7	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 59.2¢	$117.64	$81.91	-$35.73	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.2¢	$92.68	$57.14	-$35.53
└ Over leg	Overavg 64¢	$24.96	$24.77	-$0.2
RN1<$100	Overavg 42¢	$51.73	$69.86	+$18.14	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Overavg 59¢	$35.98	$37.5	+$1.52	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 40.7¢	$22.14	$20.68	-$1.47	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 61¢	$14.24	$13.42	-$0.82	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$3	$3.08	+$0.08	52% 7504-6793 (14297)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,431.54

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$864.6

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Under$2,525.6159.9¢-$944.12

Over$905.9339.1¢+$79.52

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731

Over

Invested

$1,456.33

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$130.7

Record

32%

742-1577 (2319)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Under

Invested

$944

Value

$920

PnL

-$24

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$855.9

Value

$834.53

PnL

-$21.36

Record

72%

6831-2625 (9456)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$924.5

Value

$439.74

PnL

-$392.03

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$190.17

Value

$185.33

PnL

-$4.83

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$147.53

Value

$146.06

PnL

-$1.47

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$122.26

Value

$119.95

PnL

-$4.77

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

Both legs:

Invested

$122

Value

$115

PnL

-$7

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$117.64

Value

$81.91

PnL

-$35.73

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Both legs:

Under$92.6859.2¢-$35.53

Over$24.9664¢-$0.2

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$51.73

Value

$69.86

PnL

+$18.14

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

Lilybaeum<$100

Over

Invested

$35.98

Value

$37.5

PnL

+$1.52

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.14

Value

$20.68

PnL

-$1.47

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.24

Value

$13.42

PnL

-$0.82

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

7504-6793 (14297)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.