US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Over86¢Under14¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$391.54

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 86¢

+29% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over86%

Under14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,960

Combined PnL+$396.21

Under5 traders

Total Value$251.66

Total Shares796

Combined PnL-$4.67

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 66.3¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$389.8	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 32.8¢	$115.49	$109.3	-$6.19	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 33¢	$111.25	$107.88	+$0	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 67¢	$29.48	$29.26	-$0.22	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 69¢	$21.5	$27.58	+$6.08	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$21.08	$23.46	+$2.38	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 70¢	$21.04	$19.84	-$1.2	50% 19451-19817 (39268)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$11.55	$10.67	-$0.88	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 70¢	$7	$8.75	+$1.75	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$0.34	$0.36	+$0.02	54% 57170-49418 (106588)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,234.11

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$389.8

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$115.49

Value

$109.3

PnL

-$6.19

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$111.25

Value

$107.88

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$29.48

Value

$29.26

PnL

-$0.22

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$21.5

Value

$27.58

PnL

+$6.08

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.08

Value

$23.46

PnL

+$2.38

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$21.04

Value

$19.84

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

19451-19817 (39268)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.55

Value

$10.67

PnL

-$0.88

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$8.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.