Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will US Lecce win on 2026-11-01?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 31¢ · $547 held · ends Nov 1

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$547.39

Combined PnL

-$2.01

Smart Money Entry

29.5¢ → 30.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$369

Total Shares1,217

Combined PnL+$0.14

No2 traders

Total Value$178.39

Total Shares257

Combined PnL-$2.15

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

63h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 28.8¢	$231.95	$245.28	+$13.33	50% 25632-25461 (51093)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 70.2¢	$163.26	$161.59	-$1.67	59% 46853-33124 (79977)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 31¢	$128.07	$114.69	-$13.38	58% 42636-31031 (73667)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 72¢	$17.28	$16.8	-$0.48	57% 29212-21600 (50812)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$4.78	$4.95	+$0.25	53% 2247-1977 (4224)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.9¢	$4.2	$4.08	-$0.05	53% 5577-5013 (10590)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$231.95

Value

$245.28

PnL

+$13.33

Record

50%

25632-25461 (51093)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$163.26

Value

$161.59

PnL

-$1.67

Record

59%

46853-33124 (79977)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$128.07

Value

$114.69

PnL

-$13.38

Record

58%

42636-31031 (73667)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$17.28

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$0.48

Record

57%

29212-21600 (50812)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.78

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

2247-1977 (4224)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.08

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

5577-5013 (10590)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

63h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.