Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-11-01?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 59¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$15.7K
-$159.12
59¢ → 58.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HY hydra1248CTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $6.5K | $5.2K | $-1.4K | — 6-5 (11) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 59¢ | $4.2K | $4.9K | +$612.25 | 49% 12788-13237 (26025) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Noavg 59¢ | $2.4K | $2.7K | +$340 | 53% 5653-4991 (10644) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 59¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$164.13 | 73% 6739-2446 (9185) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 59¢ | $669.15 | $663.48 | -$5.67 | 50% 25353-25122 (50475) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 59¢ | $569.52 | $651.56 | +$82.05 | 53% 16036-14210 (30246) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 59¢ | $295 | $292.5 | -$2.5 | 58% 42202-30652 (72854) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $31.9 | $37.13 | +$5.23 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
Invested
$6,534.02
Value
$5.2K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
—
6-5 (11)
Invested
$4,249.77
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$612.25
Record
49%
12788-13237 (26025)
Invested
$2,360
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$340
Record
53%
5653-4991 (10644)
Invested
$1,139.29
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$164.13
Record
73%
6739-2446 (9185)
Invested
$669.15
Value
$663.48
PnL
-$5.67
Record
50%
25353-25122 (50475)
Invested
$569.52
Value
$651.56
PnL
+$82.05
Record
53%
16036-14210 (30246)
VeryLucky888Invested
$295
Value
$292.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
42202-30652 (72854)
Invested
$31.9
Value
$37.13
PnL
+$5.23
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.