Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $152 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$151.62
-$455.52
51.3¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 71¢ | $69.58 | $49.98 | -$19.6 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 91.4¢ | $34.74 | $37.98 | +$3.24 | 63% 1209-696 (1905) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 34.5¢ | $76.09 | $32.13 | -$43.96 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 51.2¢ | $304.26 | $23 | -$281.26 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $4.3 | $8.43 | +$4.13 | 59% 30682-21402 (52084) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 58.9¢ | $118.17 | $0.1 | -$118.07 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
Invested
$69.58
Value
$49.98
PnL
-$19.6
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
Invested
$34.74
Value
$37.98
PnL
+$3.24
Record
63%
1209-696 (1905)
Invested
$76.09
Value
$32.13
PnL
-$43.96
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
RN1CTRInvested
$304.26
Value
$23
PnL
-$281.26
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$8.43
PnL
+$4.13
Record
59%
30682-21402 (52084)
Invested
$118.17
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$118.07
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.