Will US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 69¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$12.8K
-$36.91
68¢ → 68.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LZ lzh1 | Noavg 68¢ | $10.4K | $10.4K | -$0 | 43% 471-634 (1105) |
CA CannaeCTR | Yesavg 32¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$25.61 | 53% 16112-14276 (30388) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 32¢ | $723.15 | $723.15 | -$11.3 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $44.48 | $44.48 | -$0.7 | 57% 29224-21607 (50831) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $29.48 | $34.17 | +$0.69 | 72% 6827-2619 (9446) |
Invested
$10,388.72
Value
$10.4K
PnL
-$0
Record
43%
471-634 (1105)
Invested
$1,639.58
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$25.61
Record
53%
16112-14276 (30388)
Invested
$723.15
Value
$723.15
PnL
-$11.3
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
Invested
$44.48
Value
$44.48
PnL
-$0.7
Record
57%
29224-21607 (50831)
Invested
$29.48
Value
$34.17
PnL
+$0.69
Record
72%
6827-2619 (9446)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.