US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to Score

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 65¢ · $610 held · ended Nov 1

Yes65¢No35¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$610.16

Combined PnL

$1.7

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 64.5¢

+31% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$185.74

Total Shares358

Combined PnL+$8.79

No3 traders

Total Value$24.16

Total Shares69

Combined PnL-$7.08

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Noavg 51¢	$281.02	$275.48	+$2.76	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51¢	$139.98	$141.35	+$1.37
└ No leg	Noavg 51¢	$141.05	$134.13	+$1.38
CA Cannae	Yesavg 48.6¢	$139.91	$148.21	+$8.3	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 49¢	$123.97	$124.78	-$1.27	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
└ No leg	Noavg 49¢	$90.16	$89.24	-$0.92
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$33.81	$35.54	-$0.35
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 50.8¢	$32.21	$32.66	+$0.45	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 40.4¢	$24.47	$20.88	-$3.59	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$4.83	$4.87	+$0.04	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$1.85	$1.9	+$0.06	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 49.3¢	$425.84	$1.38	-$3.55	58% 42700-31074 (73774)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Invested

$281.02

Value

$275.48

PnL

+$2.76

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

Both legs:

Invested

$139.91

Value

$148.21

PnL

+$8.3

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$123.97

Value

$124.78

PnL

-$1.27

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

Both legs:

Invested

$32.21

Value

$32.66

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$24.47

Value

$20.88

PnL

-$3.59

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$425.84

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$3.55

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.