SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 5.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 97¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$5.0K
-$61.47
95¢ → 96.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 95.3¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$64.71 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
FR freeman123 | Underavg 92.3¢ | $800 | $810.4 | +$20.37 | 82% 553-125 (678) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 93.5¢ | $587.31 | $591.2 | -$6.01 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 98¢ | $494.29 | $494.25 | -$0.04 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 RN1 | Underavg 97¢ | $621.04 | $483.72 | -$137.32 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 8.2¢ | $8.2 | $5.1 | -$3.1 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 11.3¢ | $0.13 | $0.05 | -$0.08 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$2,513.49
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$64.71
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$800
Value
$810.4
PnL
+$20.37
Record
82%
553-125 (678)
Invested
$587.31
Value
$591.2
PnL
-$6.01
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$494.29
Value
$494.25
PnL
-$0.04
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
RN1Invested
$621.04
Value
$483.72
PnL
-$137.32
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$8.2
Value
$5.1
PnL
-$3.1
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.