SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
$4.1K
-$191.13
83.3¢ → 94¢
+13% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 84.7¢ | $2.4K | $2.1K | -$269.63 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
 RN1 | Underavg 80.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$37.78 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 87.6¢ | $350.42 | $367.97 | +$17.55 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 85.2¢ | $218.67 | $242.53 | +$23.86 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $17.75 | $19.17 | +$1.42 | 55% 3009-2439 (5448) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 81.7¢ | $19.66 | $17.55 | -$2.1 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
Invested
$2,401.52
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$269.63
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
RN1Invested
$1,308.29
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$37.78
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$350.42
Value
$367.97
PnL
+$17.55
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$218.67
Value
$242.53
PnL
+$23.86
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$17.75
Value
$19.17
PnL
+$1.42
Record
55%
3009-2439 (5448)
Invested
$19.66
Value
$17.55
PnL
-$2.1
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.