SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 67¢ · $518 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$517.57
-$9.32
68.5¢ → 66.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 69¢ | $624.9 | $286.81 | -$6.62 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 31¢ | $100.05 | $103.28 | -$1.61 | 53% 5694-5029 (10723) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $96.99 | $99.89 | +$2.9 | 54% 4942-4170 (9112) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 31.5¢ | $13.46 | $13.69 | +$0.23 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 67¢ | $174.96 | $10.45 | -$4.23 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $3.45 | $3.45 | +$0.03 | 52% 7499-6786 (14285) |
0xheavy888Invested
$624.9
Value
$286.81
PnL
-$6.62
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
Invested
$100.05
Value
$103.28
PnL
-$1.61
Record
53%
5694-5029 (10723)
Invested
$96.99
Value
$99.89
PnL
+$2.9
Record
54%
4942-4170 (9112)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$13.46
Value
$13.69
PnL
+$0.23
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
VeryLucky888Invested
$174.96
Value
$10.45
PnL
-$4.23
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$3.45
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
7499-6786 (14285)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.