SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$35.97

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 52.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,334

Combined PnL-$50.05

Under3 traders

Total Value$522.51

Total Shares1,107

Combined PnL+$14.08

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10.78	65% 1753-960 (2713)
AN AnonymousUsername	Overavg 53.5¢	$737.59	$730.87	-$13.61	72% 6827-2619 (9446)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Overavg 54¢	$604.97	$593.76	-$16.8	53% 5694-5029 (10723)
0xheavy888	Overavg 53.7¢	$322	$315	-$7	55% 7313-5881 (13194)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 45.6¢	$283.29	$291.68	+$11.5	53% 16112-14276 (30388)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 47¢	$223.75	$226.13	+$2.38	50% 25644-25471 (51115)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 55¢	$41.25	$39.75	-$1.88	57% 29224-21607 (50831)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$4.55	$4.7	+$0.2	52% 7493-6786 (14279)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100	Overavg 52¢	$2.17	$2.21	+$0.02	54% 4942-4170 (9112)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$1,142.23

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10.78

Record

65%

1753-960 (2713)

AnonymousUsername

Over

Invested

$737.59

Value

$730.87

PnL

-$13.61

Record

72%

6827-2619 (9446)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Over

Invested

$604.97

Value

$593.76

PnL

-$16.8

Record

53%

5694-5029 (10723)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$322

Value

$315

PnL

-$7

Record

55%

7313-5881 (13194)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$283.29

Value

$291.68

PnL

+$11.5

Record

53%

16112-14276 (30388)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$223.75

Value

$226.13

PnL

+$2.38

Record

50%

25644-25471 (51115)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$41.25

Value

$39.75

PnL

-$1.88

Record

57%

29224-21607 (50831)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

7493-6786 (14279)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100

Over

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.21

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

4942-4170 (9112)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.