SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 78¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 25%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
$23.38
Research grade
NeutralOver at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 78¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$21.54 | 50% 7122-7163 (14285) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 22¢ | $205.04 | $209.7 | +$4.66 | 59% 46853-33124 (79977) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 22¢ | $122.94 | $117.35 | -$2.79 | 53% 16110-14274 (30384) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $99.99 | $99.48 | -$0.5 | 57% 29212-21600 (50812) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 78¢ | $69.41 | $70.29 | +$0.89 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 22¢ | $30.58 | $29.19 | -$1.39 | |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $1.1 | $1.05 | -$0.03 | 52% 7485-6781 (14266) |
Invested
$1,680.1
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$21.54
Record
50%
7122-7163 (14285)
Invested
$205.04
Value
$209.7
PnL
+$4.66
Record
59%
46853-33124 (79977)
Invested
$122.94
Value
$117.35
PnL
-$2.79
Record
53%
16110-14274 (30384)
Invested
$99.99
Value
$99.48
PnL
-$0.5
Record
57%
29212-21600 (50812)
Both legs:
Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
7485-6781 (14266)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.