Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold SS Lazio, while the market favors Cagliari Calcio (99%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold SS Lazio (20%) · SS Lazio at 0.9¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
SS Lazio
5
SS Lazio 20%
$1.2K
-$364.79
Research grade
AvoidSS Lazio at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Cagliari Calcio 99%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Cagliari Calcioavg 82.4¢ | $370.52 | $444.91 | +$50.1 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
UP UpTheBlues | Cagliari Calcioavg 89.3¢ | $331.35 | $366.36 | +$15.54 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | SS Lazioavg 17.5¢ | $706.89 | $283 | -$444.1 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Cagliari Calcioavg 79.7¢ | $45.77 | $55.55 | +$9.78 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Cagliari Calcioavg 80¢ | $23.96 | $27.85 | +$3.89 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$370.52
Value
$444.91
PnL
+$50.1
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$331.35
Value
$366.36
PnL
+$15.54
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$706.89
Value
$283
PnL
-$444.1
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$45.77
Value
$55.55
PnL
+$9.78
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$23.96
Value
$27.85
PnL
+$3.89
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.