Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Cagliari Calcio (10%) · Cagliari Calcio at 61¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 1

SS Lazio40¢Cagliari Calcio60¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cagliari Calcio

Consensus Traders

Cagliari Calcio 10%

Total Value

$33.0K

Combined PnL

$77.24

Research grade

NeutralCagliari Calcio at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cagliari Calcio

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

SS Lazio40%

Cagliari Calcio61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cagliari Calcio1 trader

Total Value$22.2K

Total Shares36,730

Combined PnL-$41.79

SS Lazio9 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares27,119

Combined PnL+$119.03

Cagliari Calcio — 10%SS Lazio — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Cagliari Calcio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSS Lazio 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpSS Lazio 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSS Lazio 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSS Lazio 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000SS Lazio 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Cagliari Calcioavg 60.6¢	$22.3K	$22.2K	-$41.79	50% 19412-19792 (39204)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	SS Lazioavg 39¢	$5.8K	$6.0K	+$150	47% 2567-2854 (5421)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	SS Lazioavg 40.6¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$60.87	50% 25589-25416 (51005)
CA CannaeCTR	SS Lazioavg 39.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.03	53% 16099-14267 (30366)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	SS Lazioavg 39¢	$780	$800	+$20	53% 5694-5029 (10723)
VeryLucky888CTR	SS Lazioavg 39.5¢	$395	$400	+$0	58% 42597-30998 (73595)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	SS Lazioavg 40¢	$179.2	$179.2	-$0	72% 6820-2615 (9435)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	SS Lazioavg 40.3¢	$79.88	$67.52	-$0.67	56% 14151-10960 (25111)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	SS Lazioavg 39.6¢	$62.5	$63.2	-$0.09	57% 29194-21587 (50781)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	SS Lazioavg 39¢	$24.57	$25.2	+$0.63	49% 1196-1222 (2418)

omnibus-076daa

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$22,263.2

Value

$22.2K

PnL

-$41.79

Record

50%

19412-19792 (39204)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

SS Lazio

Invested

$5,850

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$150

Record

47%

2567-2854 (5421)

GoalLineGhostCTR

SS Lazio

Invested

$2,180

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$60.87

Record

50%

25589-25416 (51005)

CannaeCTR

SS Lazio

Invested

$1,156.51

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.03

Record

53%

16099-14267 (30366)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

SS Lazio

Invested

$780

Value

$800

PnL

+$20

Record

53%

5694-5029 (10723)

VeryLucky888CTR

SS Lazio

Invested

$395

Value

$400

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

42597-30998 (73595)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

SS Lazio

Invested

$179.2

Value

$179.2

PnL

-$0

Record

72%

6820-2615 (9435)

ghorrockCTR<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

$79.88

Value

$67.52

PnL

-$0.67

Record

56%

14151-10960 (25111)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

$62.5

Value

$63.2

PnL

-$0.09

Record

57%

29194-21587 (50781)

forecastication4CTR<$100

SS Lazio

Invested

$24.57

Value

$25.2

PnL

+$0.63

Record

49%

1196-1222 (2418)

Research grade

NeutralCagliari Calcio at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cagliari Calcio

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Cagliari Calcio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSS Lazio 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpSS Lazio 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSS Lazio 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSS Lazio 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000SS Lazio 89% · 9

Diverging

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cagliari Calcio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.