Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$1.0K
$12.95
66.5¢ → 67.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 68¢ | $680 | $675 | -$5 | 58% 40728-29460 (70188) |
SU sugar-super | Yesavg 63¢ | $206.79 | $229.35 | +$22.56 | 53% 371-335 (706) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 66.1¢ | $71.61 | $68.84 | -$5.51 | 53% 15728-13898 (29626) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $15.32 | $15.21 | -$0.11 | 57% 13102-9987 (23089) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 60.2¢ | $13.14 | $14.84 | +$0.74 | 53% 3017-2681 (5698) |
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $2.78 | $3.05 | +$0.28 | 59% 51-36 (87) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$680
Value
$675
PnL
-$5
Record
58%
40728-29460 (70188)
Invested
$206.79
Value
$229.35
PnL
+$22.56
Record
53%
371-335 (706)
Invested
$71.61
Value
$68.84
PnL
-$5.51
Record
53%
15728-13898 (29626)
Invested
$15.32
Value
$15.21
PnL
-$0.11
Record
57%
13102-9987 (23089)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.14
Value
$14.84
PnL
+$0.74
Record
53%
3017-2681 (5698)
Invested
$2.78
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$0.28
Record
59%
51-36 (87)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.