SS Lazio leading at halftime?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$1.2K
$98.46
87.3¢ → 100¢
+14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 95.8¢ | $890.99 | $929.78 | +$38.8 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 50¢ | $71.19 | $142.24 | +$71.05 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
 RN1 | Noavg 71.5¢ | $124.1 | $119.27 | -$4.83 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $10.67 | $20.5 | +$2.15 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $9 | $10 | +$1 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $12.72 | $2.92 | -$9.81 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $1.15 | $1.25 | +$0.1 | 59% 30677-21391 (52068) |
Invested
$890.99
Value
$929.78
PnL
+$38.8
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
VeryLucky888Invested
$71.19
Value
$142.24
PnL
+$71.05
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
RN1Invested
$124.1
Value
$119.27
PnL
-$4.83
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$10.67
Value
$20.5
PnL
+$2.15
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$9
Value
$10
PnL
+$1
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$12.72
Value
$2.92
PnL
-$9.81
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.25
PnL
+$0.1
Record
59%
30677-21391 (52068)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.