SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: 1st Half O/U 0.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 57¢ · $120 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 100%
$119.83
$30.45
Research grade
NeutralOver at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $59 | $99.9 | +$40.9 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $14.72 | $10.43 | -$4.29 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $15.66 | $9.5 | -$6.16 | 63% 1200-693 (1893) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.