Exact Score: SS Lazio 3 - 1 Cagliari Calcio?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$10.0K
-$214.23
92.7¢ → 93.3¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93.4¢ | $5.3K | $5.2K | -$41.77 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 90.7¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | -$83.6 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Noavg 92.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$17.94 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 92.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$70.4 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 9¢ | $215.6 | $331.34 | +$88.33 | |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 94.3¢ | $864.25 | $788.95 | -$75.3 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 poshposh | Noavg 92.5¢ | $138.75 | $129.15 | -$9.6 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $51.32 | $47.36 | -$3.96 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
Invested
$5,267.08
Value
$5.2K
PnL
-$41.77
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$2,217.96
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$83.6
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,549.8
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$17.94
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Both legs:
Invested
$864.25
Value
$788.95
PnL
-$75.3
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
poshposhInvested
$138.75
Value
$129.15
PnL
-$9.6
Record
58%
10670-7656 (18326)
Invested
$51.32
Value
$47.36
PnL
-$3.96
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.