Exact Score: SS Lazio 2 - 0 Cagliari Calcio?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $205 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$205.1
$19.45
89.4¢ → 97¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 89¢ | $101.76 | $110.91 | +$9.15 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $64.52 | $71.12 | +$8.76 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $19.4 | $19.4 | +$0 | 74% 1681-594 (2275) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $108.68 | $3.67 | +$1.54 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
Invested
$101.76
Value
$110.91
PnL
+$9.15
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$64.52
Value
$71.12
PnL
+$8.76
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$19.4
Value
$19.4
PnL
+$0
Record
74%
1681-594 (2275)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$108.68
Value
$3.67
PnL
+$1.54
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.