Exact Score: SS Lazio 0 - 1 Cagliari Calcio?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 89¢ · $830 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$830.24
$14.77
95¢ → 89.3¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 95¢ | $695.34 | $699.44 | +$6.65 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 RN1 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $106.83 | $113 | +$6.17 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.86 | $13.33 | +$2.48 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.47 | -$0.53 | 98% 13363-214 (13577) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.