Will SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 72¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 1

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$79.37

Smart Money Entry

71.6¢ → 71.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares9,856

Combined PnL+$13.94

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares8,079

Combined PnL+$65.43

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 71.6¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	-$4.78	55% 3007-2438 (5445)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$6.74	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$26.96
└ No leg	Noavg 78.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$20.23
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 27.7¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$63.51	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 70¢	$472.6	$559.72	+$87.13	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21¢	$210.63	$295.89	+$85.26
└ No leg	Noavg 70¢	$261.97	$263.84	+$1.87
RN1	Noavg 71.5¢	$160.75	$166.42	+$5.67	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 78¢	$118.54	$120.06	+$1.52	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
poshposh	Noavg 68¢	$102	$108.75	+$6.75	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 70.9¢	$103.22	$104.28	+$1.06	52% 13925-12698 (26623)
FO foooool	Noavg 71¢	$99.4	$100.1	+$0.7	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 69¢	$71.24	$74.16	+$2.92	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$39.35	$40.03	+$0.68	61% 13791-8667 (22458)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.3¢	$28.44	$29.68	+$1.24	58% 18782-13844 (32626)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 78¢	$8.11	$8.22	+$0.1	53% 2247-1977 (4224)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$6.91	$6.91	-$0	53% 16115-14278 (30393)

Anon455

Invested

$6,436.57

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$4.78

Record

55%

3007-2438 (5445)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,738.9

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$6.74

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

Both legs:

Yes$1,51028¢+$26.96

No$1,228.8978.8¢-$20.23

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,161.2

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$63.51

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$472.6

Value

$559.72

PnL

+$87.13

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

Both legs:

Yes$210.6321¢+$85.26

No$261.9770¢+$1.87

RN1

Invested

$160.75

Value

$166.42

PnL

+$5.67

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$118.54

Value

$120.06

PnL

+$1.52

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

poshposh

Invested

$102

Value

$108.75

PnL

+$6.75

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$103.22

Value

$104.28

PnL

+$1.06

Record

52%

13925-12698 (26623)

foooool

Invested

$99.4

Value

$100.1

PnL

+$0.7

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$71.24

Value

$74.16

PnL

+$2.92

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.35

Value

$40.03

PnL

+$0.68

Record

61%

13791-8667 (22458)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.44

Value

$29.68

PnL

+$1.24

Record

58%

18782-13844 (32626)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$8.11

Value

$8.22

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

2247-1977 (4224)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.91

Value

$6.91

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

16115-14278 (30393)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.