Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 49¢ · $322 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$322.35
-$4.45
49.9¢ → 48.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $172.8 | $165.99 | -$5.09 | 72% 6827-2619 (9446) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $126.65 | $121.33 | -$2.66 | 55% 7313-5881 (13194) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $97.34 | $94.42 | -$2.92 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51¢ | $26.65 | $26.91 | +$0.26 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $18.96 | $19.28 | +$0.48 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $8.74 | $8.82 | +$0.09 | 56% 14224-11027 (25251) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $6.85 | $6.93 | +$0.07 | 53% 16112-14276 (30388) |
Invested
$172.8
Value
$165.99
PnL
-$5.09
Record
72%
6827-2619 (9446)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$126.65
Value
$121.33
PnL
-$2.66
Record
55%
7313-5881 (13194)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.96
Value
$19.28
PnL
+$0.48
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
Invested
$8.74
Value
$8.82
PnL
+$0.09
Record
56%
14224-11027 (25251)
Invested
$6.85
Value
$6.93
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
16112-14276 (30388)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.