Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (89%) · Over at 48¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 1

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 89%

Total Value

$21.9K

Combined PnL

-$106.54

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 47.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares26,670

Combined PnL-$31.05

Under1 trader

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares17,817

Combined PnL-$75.49

Over — 89%Under — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 47¢	$10.6K	$10.6K	-$0	47% 2571-2857 (5428)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 52.9¢	$17.8K	$9.4K	-$75.49	50% 19424-19795 (39219)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 48¢	$960	$940	-$20	53% 5694-5029 (10723)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$434.6	$430.05	-$4.55	72% 6826-2619 (9445)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47.7¢	$365.31	$352.5	-$4.85	58% 42636-31031 (73667)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$94	$94	+$0	54% 4939-4170 (9109)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$70.08	$68.62	-$1.46	57% 29212-21600 (50812)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 47.4¢	$25.76	$25.56	-$0.19	56% 14220-11020 (25240)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$20.55	$20.55	-$0	53% 16110-14274 (30384)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$10,603.73

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

2571-2857 (5428)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$17,816.66

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$75.49

Record

50%

19424-19795 (39219)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$960

Value

$940

PnL

-$20

Record

53%

5694-5029 (10723)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$434.6

Value

$430.05

PnL

-$4.55

Record

72%

6826-2619 (9445)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$365.31

Value

$352.5

PnL

-$4.85

Record

58%

42636-31031 (73667)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$94

Value

$94

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

4939-4170 (9109)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.08

Value

$68.62

PnL

-$1.46

Record

57%

29212-21600 (50812)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.76

Value

$25.56

PnL

-$0.19

Record

56%

14220-11020 (25240)

CannaeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.55

Value

$20.55

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

16110-14274 (30384)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.