Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-11-01?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 71¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$8.4K
-$132.8
71.4¢ → 70.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HY hydra1248CTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $3.0K | $2.9K | -$49.18 | — 4-0 (4) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 73.3¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$87.05 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 70¢ | $737.1 | $1.0K | -$16.53 | 73% 6697-2416 (9113) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 70¢ | $915.56 | $922.1 | +$6.54 | 53% 15980-14158 (30138) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 70¢ | $910.81 | $917.31 | +$6.51 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
PL PLACEYOURBETS123CTR | Yesavg 29¢ | $344.34 | $356.21 | +$5.94 | 59% 59-41 (100) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 75.4¢ | $32.82 | $33.62 | +$0.75 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $31.5 | $31.72 | +$0.22 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
Invested
$2,950.94
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$49.18
Record
—
4-0 (4)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,309.44
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$87.05
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$737.1
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$16.53
Record
73%
6697-2416 (9113)
Invested
$915.56
Value
$922.1
PnL
+$6.54
Record
53%
15980-14158 (30138)
Invested
$910.81
Value
$917.31
PnL
+$6.51
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$344.34
Value
$356.21
PnL
+$5.94
Record
59%
59-41 (100)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$32.82
Value
$33.62
PnL
+$0.75
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$31.72
PnL
+$0.22
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.