Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Juventus FC win on 2026-11-01?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 44¢ · $47K held · ends Nov 1

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$46.6K

Combined PnL

-$183.58

Smart Money Entry

42.8¢ → 43.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$26.3K

Total Shares61,774

Combined PnL-$154.67

No8 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares35,710

Combined PnL-$28.91

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 42.8¢	$60.4K	$25.6K	-$183.15	50% 19412-19792 (39204)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 57¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	+$0	49% 12972-13528 (26500)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 57¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	+$2.59	58% 42597-30998 (73595)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 57.3¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$25.97	72% 6820-2615 (9435)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 57¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$0	53% 5694-5029 (10723)
CA Cannae	Noavg 57.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$2.61	53% 16099-14267 (30366)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 41¢	$583.74	$612.21	+$28.48	65% 1752-960 (2712)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 57.2¢	$129.3	$118.06	-$2.32	56% 14151-10960 (25111)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 57.3¢	$102.01	$101.46	-$0.55	57% 29194-21587 (50781)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.85	-$0.05	52% 7473-6774 (14247)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$60,350.48

Value

$25.6K

PnL

-$183.15

Record

50%

19412-19792 (39204)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$6,719.73

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

12972-13528 (26500)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$5,845.17

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$2.59

Record

58%

42597-30998 (73595)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$4,281.02

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$25.97

Record

72%

6820-2615 (9435)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$2,280

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5694-5029 (10723)

Cannae

Invested

$1,033.15

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$2.61

Record

53%

16099-14267 (30366)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$583.74

Value

$612.21

PnL

+$28.48

Record

65%

1752-960 (2712)

ghorrock

Invested

$129.3

Value

$118.06

PnL

-$2.32

Record

56%

14151-10960 (25111)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$102.01

Value

$101.46

PnL

-$0.55

Record

57%

29194-21587 (50781)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

7473-6774 (14247)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.