Exact Score: Juventus FC 1 - 2 SSC Napoli?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$12.0K
$419.08
95.9¢ → 99.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.8¢ | $9.4K | $9.7K | +$342.92 | 50% 33950-33521 (67471) |
 RN1 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$54.07 | 54% 57287-49527 (106814) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 96¢ | $672.82 | $694.5 | +$21.68 | 49% 13072-13667 (26739) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $65.26 | $65.67 | +$0.41 | 59% 47089-33330 (80419) |
Invested
$9,362.06
Value
$9.7K
PnL
+$342.92
Record
50%
33950-33521 (67471)
RN1Invested
$1,440.42
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$54.07
Record
54%
57287-49527 (106814)
Invested
$672.82
Value
$694.5
PnL
+$21.68
Record
49%
13072-13667 (26739)
Invested
$65.26
Value
$65.67
PnL
+$0.41
Record
59%
47089-33330 (80419)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.