Will Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?

15 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 55¢ · $34K held · ended Nov 1

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 65%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.8K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 54.5¢

-19% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 23 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$20.6K

Total Shares31,124

Combined PnL-$426.04

Yes8 traders

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares31,300

Combined PnL+$2.5K

No — 65%Yes — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 70.5¢	$13.1K	$12.9K	-$279.24	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 37.1¢	$5.6K	$6.8K	+$1.2K	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$3.8K	$5.1K	+$1.2K	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 56.4¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$115.51	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
OR OrwellFactory	Noavg 71¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$0	57% 352-262 (614)
AV averagejoetraders	Noavg 69¢	$710	$704.86	-$5.14	57% 572-439 (1011)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Noavg 69¢	$689.99	$684.99	-$5	53% 462-411 (873)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Yesavg 29.6¢	$441.19	$462.52	+$21.33	58% 18786-13851 (32637)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$286.63	$291.05	+$4.42	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
oieshfn345	Noavg 59.9¢	$280.32	$277.22	-$3.1	57% 1818-1368 (3186)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 69.2¢	$225.34	$209.8	-$15.54	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 70.5¢	$192.5	$188.46	-$4.04	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 71¢	$166.23	$168.3	+$2.07	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28¢	$82.93	$84.41	+$1.48
└ No leg	Noavg 71¢	$83.3	$83.89	+$0.59
tradecraftCTR	Yesavg 29.9¢	$135.64	$142.75	+$7.11	51% 6082-5802 (11884)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 36¢	$106.65	$108.13	+$1.48	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 69¢	$90.77	$90.21	-$0.56	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 70¢	$64.47	$66.58	+$2.12	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 72¢	$60.04	$59.41	-$0.64	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$38.58	$38.32	-$0.27
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29¢	$21.46	$21.09	-$0.37
0010001000001100	Noavg 67¢	$132.18	$51.04	+$0.22	65% 1371-739 (2110)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 71.6¢	$37.69	$37.63	-$0.06	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.4¢	$26.91	$36.76	+$9.85	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$24.99	$25.35	+$0.36	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 69¢	$10	$9.93	-$0.07	66% 23472-11826 (35298)
BE berlinskies<$100	Noavg 69¢	$9.99	$9.92	-$0.07	58% 5897-4320 (10217)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.73	-$0.02	54% 6435-5416 (11851)

Anon455

Invested

$13,147.7

Value

$12.9K

PnL

-$279.24

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,577.78

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,834.79

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,481.96

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$115.51

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

OrwellFactory

Invested

$2,058.93

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

352-262 (614)

averagejoetraders

Invested

$710

Value

$704.86

PnL

-$5.14

Record

57%

572-439 (1011)

oxe78sh4w98

Invested

$689.99

Value

$684.99

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

462-411 (873)

BillBenter2026CTR

Yes

Invested

$441.19

Value

$462.52

PnL

+$21.33

Record

58%

18786-13851 (32637)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$286.63

Value

$291.05

PnL

+$4.42

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

oieshfn345

Invested

$280.32

Value

$277.22

PnL

-$3.1

Record

57%

1818-1368 (3186)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$225.34

Value

$209.8

PnL

-$15.54

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$192.5

Value

$188.46

PnL

-$4.04

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$166.23

Value

$168.3

PnL

+$2.07

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

Both legs:

Invested

$135.64

Value

$142.75

PnL

+$7.11

Record

51%

6082-5802 (11884)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$106.65

Value

$108.13

PnL

+$1.48

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$90.77

Value

$90.21

PnL

-$0.56

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$64.47

Value

$66.58

PnL

+$2.12

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$60.04

Value

$59.41

PnL

-$0.64

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

Both legs:

No$38.5872¢-$0.27

Yes$21.4629¢-$0.37

0010001000001100

Invested

$132.18

Value

$51.04

PnL

+$0.22

Record

65%

1371-739 (2110)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$37.69

Value

$37.63

PnL

-$0.06

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.91

Value

$36.76

PnL

+$9.85

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.99

Value

$25.35

PnL

+$0.36

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.93

PnL

-$0.07

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

berlinskies<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$0.07

Record

58%

5897-4320 (10217)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.02

Record

54%

6435-5416 (11851)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

15 of 23 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.