Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to Score
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 46¢ · $92 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$91.5
$0.12
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $72.87 | $72.87 | +$0 | 72% 6827-2619 (9446) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $12.42 | $12.42 | +$0.12 | 50% 7122-7164 (14286) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $6.21 | $6.21 | +$0 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.