Genoa CFC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 5.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 99¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$12.9K
-$56
96.8¢ → 98.9¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 98.5¢ | $5.9K | $5.9K | +$11.88 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 94.7¢ | $4.8K | $5.0K | +$215.2 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 97.1¢ | $2.1K | $1.1K | $-1.0K | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR | Overavg 2.9¢ | $45.97 | $792.5 | +$746.54 | 32% 716-1540 (2256) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 94.4¢ | $47.66 | $50.5 | +$2.84 | 58% 28127-20735 (48862) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 7.4¢ | $44.03 | $42.97 | -$1.06 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
RN1Invested
$5,851.88
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$11.88
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$4,794.83
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$215.2
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$2,127.16
Value
$1.1K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$45.97
Value
$792.5
PnL
+$746.54
Record
32%
716-1540 (2256)
Invested
$47.66
Value
$50.5
PnL
+$2.84
Record
58%
28127-20735 (48862)
Invested
$44.03
Value
$42.97
PnL
-$1.06
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.