Genoa CFC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 4.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 70¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$758.34

Smart Money Entry

90.9¢ → 70¢

-23% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares6,994

Combined PnL-$920.23

Over3 traders

Total Value$890.66

Total Shares7,991

Combined PnL+$161.89

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 91.7¢	$3.2K	$2.4K	-$773.84	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 92¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$39.47	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 8¢	$569.5	$676.28	+$106.78	32% 716-1540 (2256)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 84.4¢	$623.76	$517.19	-$106.57	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
SK SkurwysynCTR	Overavg 31¢	$112.31	$108.69	-$3.62	49% 257-269 (526)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 7¢	$46.96	$105.69	+$58.73	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
MI MinevaJ<$100	Underavg 70¢	$32.78	$32.55	-$0.23	58% 1001-729 (1730)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 92¢	$25.32	$25.24	-$0.08	57% 13182-10033 (23215)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 86¢	$3.01	$2.98	-$0.03	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$3,222.94

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$773.84

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,455.5

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$39.47

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$569.5

Value

$676.28

PnL

+$106.78

Record

32%

716-1540 (2256)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$623.76

Value

$517.19

PnL

-$106.57

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

SkurwysynCTR

Over

Invested

$112.31

Value

$108.69

PnL

-$3.62

Record

49%

257-269 (526)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$46.96

Value

$105.69

PnL

+$58.73

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

MinevaJ<$100

Under

Invested

$32.78

Value

$32.55

PnL

-$0.23

Record

58%

1001-729 (1730)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$25.32

Value

$25.24

PnL

-$0.08

Record

57%

13182-10033 (23215)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.01

Value

$2.98

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.